2012 Hammer Bowl Tournament Simulator – unofficial pre-seeding

Road to Ham Bowl (small)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something that I have done for the last 11 years is produce an imaginary tournament based on my 5 favorite teams. If you are a regular reader of my blog then you will know that my 5 favorite teams are Oklahoma, Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, Southwestern Oklahoma State, Central Missouri, & Kansas City Chiefs. My seeded, single elimination, 5 team tournament has been something that I look forward to every year and I have been looking forward to sharing it with all of my readers. The secret formula that I use “evens the playing field” so to speak. For example Oklahoma, a Division 1 team, and Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, a Junior College team, would be a gross lopsided game in reality. However my formula does not take into account the number of wins Vs number of wins. Nor does it take into account strength of schedule. Instead it only looks at winning percentages, quality wins, and quality points scored. Let me explain:

  1. All teams are seeded based on current seasons winning percentage.
    1. Regular season games and post season games are the only games that count
    2. Seeding Tie Breakers
      1. Seeding Tie Breaker 1: Use 5 decimal places on winning percentage
      2. Seeding Tie Breaker 2: Use Tie Breakers 1-5 to add to winning percentage (I will explain more about this later)
      3. The Formula (not so secret anymore I suppose)
        1. ((((((((PF-PA)/GP)+QW)+CC)+NC-or-WC)+11-15 Finish)+6-10 Finish)+1-5 Finish)
        2. Formula Key:
          1. PF = Points Forced
          2. PA = Points Allowed
          3. GP = Games Played
          4. QW = Quality Wins (1 point a piece)
          5. CC = Conference Champion (2 points)
          6. NC-or-WC = National Champion -or- World Champion (3 points)
          7. 11-15 Finish = Finish season ranked 11-15 (1 point)
          8. 6-10 Finish = Finish season ranked 6-10 (2 points)
          9. 1-5 Finish = Finish season ranked in top 5 (3 points)
          10. Break that mother down:
            1. PF-PA, Points Forced minus Points Allowed. That is every point that that team has scored and has allowed scored against them. AKA Quality Points
            2. /GP, Total Quality Points divided by the number of games played. AKA the Average Quality Points per game in one season
            3. +QW, This one gets a bit tricky. Each team gets 1 Quality Win point added to their total. A Quality Win in NCAA is any victory over a ranked opponent. It doesn’t matter who is ranked above who or what anyone is ranked just any College Team that beats any other college team that is ranked at the time of the game. For the Kansas City Chiefs they only get a quality win if the opponent that they defeated ends the season with a winning record. And before you ask, NO! an even record (50% winning percentage) does not count. The Kansas City Chiefs have to beat an opponent that finishes the season with a record above .500
            4. +CC, CC stands for Conference Champion. A team will get 2 additional points for winning their respective conference. Pretty simple.
            5. +NC-or-WC, NC = National Championship, and WC = World Championship. If OU, NEO, SWOSU, or Central Missouri win a National Championship then that team will get 3 additional points. If the Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl then they will get 3 additional points.
            6. +11-15 Finish, each team will receive 1 additional point for finishing ranked 11th – 15th in their respective national polls.
            7. +6-10 Finish, each team will receive 2 additional points for finishing ranked 6th – 10th in their respective national polls.
            8. +1-5 Finish, each team will receive 3 additional points for finishing ranked 1st – 5th in their respective polls.

i.      OU has the final AP Poll, NEO has the final Junior College Poll, SWOSU and UCM have the final AFCA DII Poll, & the Chiefs have the final League Standings that come out the Monday following the Super Bowl

  1. The final number that the above formula spits out is the final score for the Hammer Bowl game that each team is playing in. Don’t forget that this formula is a rolling formula and when a team wins a game in the Hammer Bowl Tournament then the final score from that game is also factored into the formula
  2. The 5 Team Seeded Single Elimination bracket will be used unless the number of teams changes
  3. Tie Breakers
    1. Tie Breaker 1:  Point Differential from all winning games added together / total number of games played (rounded to nearest whole number) (add to score)
    2. Tie Breaker 2:  Add one point for every win (add to score)
    3. Tie Breaker 3:  Add one point for every win in 2nd half of season (add to score) (rounded to nearest whole number)
    4. Tie Breaker 4:  Add one point for every win in 1st half of season (add to score) (rounded to nearest whole number)
    5. Tie Breaker 5:  Flip two coins, First coin: Heads = Highest seeded team (Seeding: last season’s higher finisher), Tails = Lowest seeded team (Seeding: last season’s lower finisher) Second Coin: Heads = add 3 points to (previous coins team), Tails = add 3 points to (previous coins opposing team)

i.      NOTE: Seeding: Non-competing teams from previous year automatically have lower finish

ii.      NOTE: Seeding: If two or more teams did not compete previous year then flip coin to determine

As you can see I take the level of play completely out of the picture. Wins and Losses don’t count (except for tie breakers). And what each team did last season doesn’t (except for tie breakers).

History of the Hammer Bowl Tournament

The Hammer Bowl Tournament first started 11 years ago during my first semester in college when I first dreamed up with the original formula [(Points Forced – Points Allowed) / Games Played]. Not much to hang my hat on I know but back then I only followed 3 teams: Oklahoma, Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, & Shidler High School (my old High School). And instead of the tournament setup I simply accepted the 2 teams that finished with the highest winning percentage. Here are the results from my first 9 years of the Hammer Bowl:

Bryon Bowl

The Bowl to Decide the True Winner

1. The top two teams with the highest winning percentage will compete in the bowl game
2. Formula:  (Points Forced – Points Allowed) / Games Played = Final Score
(rounded to nearest whole number)
2009 Results (Bryon Bowl IX) @ Rose Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

61.5%

(404 – 189) / 13

17

Favored Win

OU

17

0

0

0

17

#2 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

33.3%

(278 – 413) / 9

0

NEO

0

0

0

0

0

End of 2009 Season Rankings
#1 OU 64.2%
#2 NEO A&M 30.0%
#3 SWOSU 9.0%
2008 Results (Bryon Bowl VIII) @ Orange Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

85.7%

(716 – 343) / 14

27

Favored Win

OU

14

6

7

0

27

#2 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

33.3%

(116-291) / 9

0

NEO

0

0

0

0

0

End of 2008 Season Rankings
#1 OU 86.6%
#2 NEO A&M 33.3%
#3 SWOSU 25.0%
2007 Results (Bryon Bowl VII) @ Sugar Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma 78.6% (592 – 284) / 14

22

Favored Win

OU

22

0

0

0

22

#2 Southwestern Oklahoma State 54.5% (228 – 262) / 11

0

SW

0

0

0

0

0

End of 2007 Season Rankings
#1 OU 80.0%
#2 SWOSU 50.0%
#3 NEO 44.4%
2006 Results (Bryon Bowl VI) @ Fiesta Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

78.6%

(424 – 242) / 14

13

Favored Win

OU

0

13

0

0

13

#2 Southwestern Oklahoma State

54.5%

(225 – 246) / 11

0

NEO

0

0

0

0

0

End of 2006 Season Rankings
#1 OU 80.0%
#2 SWOSU 50.0%
#3 NEO A&M 33.3%
2005 Results (Bryon Bowl V) @ Rose Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

75.0%

(431 – 248) / 12

15

Favored Win

NEO

0

15

0

0

15

#2 Oklahoma

66.7%

(323 – 277) / 12

4

OU

0

2

2

0

4

End of 2005 Season Rankings
#1 NEO A&M 76.9%
#2 OU 61.5%
#3 SWOSU 9.0%
2004 Results (Bryon Bowl IV) @ Orange Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

92.3%

(452 – 219) / 13

18

Favored Win

OU

14

0

2

2

18

#2 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

44.4%

(243 – 175) / 9

8

NEO

0

8

0

0

8

End of 2004 Season Rankings
#1 OU 92.8%
#2 NEO 40.0%
#3 SWOSU 10.0%
2003 Results (Bryon Bowl III) @ Sugar Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

85.7%

(601 – 214) / 14

28

Favored Win

OU

28

0

0

0

28

#2 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

83.3%

(327 – 228) / 12

8

NEO

8

0

0

0

8

End of 2003 Season Rankings
#1 OU 86.6%
#2 NEO A&M 76.9%
#3 SHS 66.6%
2002 Results (Bryon Bowl II) @ Fiesta Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

91.7%

(339 – 221) / 12

11

NEO

8

3

0

0

11

#2 Oklahoma

85.7%

(541 – 216) / 14

23

Upset Win

OU

6

6

0

11

23

End of 2002 Season Rankings
#1 OU 86.6%
#2 NEO A&M 84.6%
#3 SHS 20.0%
2001 Results (Bryon Bowl I) @ Rose Bowl
Teams Win % Formula Final Score

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Final

#1 Oklahoma

84.6%

(398 – 169) / 13

18

Favored Win

OU

18

0

0

0

18

#2 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

54.5%

(296 – 239) / 11

5

NEO

5

0

0

0

5

End of 2001 Season Rankings
#1 OU 85.7%
#2 NEO A&M 50.0%
#3 SHS 20.0 %
Bryon Bowl Record
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

8

1

9

170

47

89%

Northeastern Oklahoma A&M

1

6

7

47

135

14%

Southwestern Oklahoma State

0

2

2

0

35

0%

Shidler High School

0

0

0

0

0

0%

Following the 2003 season I decided to discontinue following Shidler High School because my younger brother no longer played football there and moved on to Central Missouri. I was in the process of graduating from Northeastern Oklahoma A&M and transferring to Southwestern Oklahoma State. So it only was logical to take SHS out and replace them with SWOSU.

2005 was the first, last, and only year that a team other than Oklahoma has won the Hammer Bowl. #1 NEO held #2 OU to zero touchdowns and won 15 to 4.

NEO suffered a couple of down seasons and made room for SWOSU to compete. However to this day SWOSU has never scored a single point in any Hammer Bowl or tournament.

In 2008 NEO made a small comeback but was shutout by Oklahoma. And again in 2009.

After the 2009 season I decided to expand the single game tournament to a 5 team tournament with the official inclusion of Central Missouri and the Kansas City Chiefs.

2010 results:

2010 Results
Pre-Tournament Seeds
#1 Oklahoma 85.7% 12-2
#2 Central Missouri 78.5% 11-3
#3 Kansas City 58.8% 10-7
#4 Southwestern 27.2% 3-8
#5 Northeastern 11.1% 1-8

Championship

Wild Card

Semifinals

Bryon Bowl X

Champion

#1 Oklahoma (23)
#4 Southwestern (0)

@ Norman (3

#1 Oklahoma (24)

@ Weatherford (Upset) (1

#5 Northeastern (2)
#5 Northeastern (2)

@ Fiesta Bowl (4

#1 Oklahoma
#2 Central Missouri (17)

@ Warrensburg (2

#2 Central Missouri (18)
#3 Kansas City (5)
2010 Final Rankings
#1 Oklahoma 87.5% 14-2
#2 Central Missouri 75.0% 12-4
#3 Kansas City 55.5% 10-8
#4 Southwestern 25.0% 3-9
#5 Northeastern 18.1% 2-9
Bryon Bowl Combined Record 2001-Present
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

10

1

11

217

67

91%

Central Missouri

1

1

2

35

29

50%

Northeastern

2

7

9

51

131

22%

Kansas City

0

1

1

5

17

0%

Southwestern

0

3

3

0

64

0%

Bryon Bowl Tournament Record 2010-Present
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

2

0

2

47

20

100%

Central Missouri

1

1

2

35

29

50%

Northeastern

1

1

2

4

23

50%

Kansas City

0

1

1

5

17

0%

Southwestern

0

1

1

0

2

0%

Bryon Bowl Record 2001-2009
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

8

1

9

170

47

89%

Northeastern

1

6

7

47

108

14%

Southwestern

0

2

2

0

62

0%

Shidler

0

0

0

0

0

0%

In their first ever year in the Hammer Tournament System Central Missouri made it all the way to the Championship round before being defeated by Oklahoma 24 to 18.

2010 also hosted the 2nd ever upset game. #5 NEO defeated #4 SWOSU by a single safety late in the 4th quarter. The first upset occurred back in 2002 when #2 OU defeated #1 NEO 23 to 11

2011 was pretty much a mirror image of 2010. Here are the results of 2011:

2011 Results
Pre-Tournament Seeds
#1 Oklahoma 76.9% 10-3
#2 Central Missouri 66.7% 8-4
#3 Southwestern 45.5% 5-6
#4 Kansas City 43.8% 7-9
#5 Northeastern 33.3% 3-6

Championship

Wild Card

Semifinals

Bryon Bowl XI

Champion

#1 Oklahoma (20)
#4 Kansas City (6)

@ Norman (3

#1 Oklahoma (21)

@ Kansas City (Upset) (1

#5 Northeastern (2)
#5 Northeastern (12)

@ Sugar Bowl (4

#1 Oklahoma
#2 Central Missouri (10)

@ Warrensburg (2

#2 Central Missouri (10)
#3 Southwestern (0)
2011 Final Rankings
#1 Oklahoma 80.0% 12-3
#2 Central Missouri 64.2% 9-5
#3 Southwestern 41.6% 5-7
#4 Kansas City 41.1% 7-10
#5 Northeastern 36.3% 4-7
Bryon Bowl Combined Record 2001-Present
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

12

1

13

258

79

92%

Central Missouri

2

2

4

55

50

50%

Northeastern

3

8

11

65

157

27%

Kansas City

0

2

2

11

29

0%

Southwestern

0

4

4

0

74

0%

Bryon Bowl Tournament Record 2010-Present
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

4

0

4

88

32

100%

Central Missouri

2

2

4

55

50

50%

Northeastern

2

2

4

18

49

50%

Kansas City

0

2

2

11

29

0%

Southwestern

0

2

2

0

12

0%

Bryon Bowl Record 2001-2009
Team Wins Losses Games PF PA Win %
Oklahoma

8

1

9

170

47

89%

Northeastern

1

6

7

47

108

14%

Southwestern

0

2

2

0

62

0%

Shidler

0

0

0

0

0

0%

2011 had the 1st ever overtime game and 3rd upset game. NEO upset the Kansas City Chiefs 12 to 6.

2012 is going to be another great year for the Hammer Tournament. I am really looking forward to it already. NEO had one heck of a year and OU struggled in the middle of the season so that potential matchup is something I am defiantly looking forward to. I hope that it is as exciting for my readers as it is for me. Also be sure to check out the Champion of Champions Bowl where I match the winner of the Hammer Bowl against the NCAA Division I Champion, the NCAA Division II Champion, the Junior College Champion, and the Super Bowl Champion. It is basically the exact same formula and layout as the Hammer Tournament but it really tests my favorite teams against this year’s champions. I will dive deeper into the Champion of Champions Tournament at a later time. However now that 4 of my favorite teams are officially done competing for the 2012 season I can at least show you the pre-tournament seeding for this year’s Hammer Tournament:

Hammer Tournament 2012 Pre-Seeding Unofficial Results
#1 Oklahoma 84.6% -or- 76.9% (pending cotton bowl results)
#2 Northeaster Oklahoma A&M 75.0%
#3 Central Missouri 60.0%
#4 Southwestern Oklahoma State 30.0%
#5 Kansas City Chiefs 12.5%

The 2012 Hammer Bowl Tournament will be simulated by my computer once the NFL final standings are released on the Monday following the Super Bowl. I will need 1-2 days to fix any discrepancies and errors that pop up then I will release the information to my blog the exact same way I did the NCAA Division I Playoff Simulator from a few weeks ago. I am tentatively shooting for Wednesday February 6th 2013 as the day I will post the first half of the Wild Card Game between SWOSU and the Kansas City Chiefs. Who knows, perhaps Southwestern will win their first ever Hammer Tournament Game in what will be their 5th attempt. The 2006 Championship loss to Oklahoma, the 2007 Championship loss to Oklahoma, the 2010 Wild Card loss to Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, & last year’s Semifinal loss to Central Missouri. We will have to wait and see.

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