2013 NCAA Division II Simulated Playoff

This is the largest simulation that I have ever produced. Using my special simulation formula I have simulated every game for this years NCAA DII Playoffs. All 23 games from all 24 teams. This will really test the accuracy of my formula. Here are the first round match ups:

First Round
#3 West Chester (10-1) (20)
@ West Chester, PA
#6 American International (9-2) (16)
#4 Winston-Salem (9-1) (29)
@ Winston-Salem, NC
#5 Slippery Rock (9-2) (21)
#3 North Alabama (8-2) (29)
@ Florence, AL
#6 Tuskegee (8-2) (18)
#4 Carson-Newman (9-2) (14)
@ Jefferson City, TN
#5 Newberry (9-2) (9)

 

First Round
#3 Henderson State (11-0) (37)
@ Arkadelphia, AR
#6 St. Cloud (10-1) (24)
#4 Minnesota Duluth (10-1) (31)
@ Duluth, MN
#5 Emporia State (9-1) (21)
#3 Indianapolis (10-1) (26)
Upset @ Indianapolis, IN
#6 West Texas A&M (9-2) (27)
#4 Grand Valley (9-2) (13)
@ Allendale, MI
#5 Saginaw Valley (9-2) (9)

 

#3 West Chester defeats #6 American International 20-16

#4 Winston-Salem defeats #5 Slippery Rock 29-21

#3 North Alabama defeats #6 Tuskegee 29-18

#4 Carson-Newman defeats Newberry 14-9

#3 Henderson State defeats St. Cloud 37-24

#4 Minnesota Duluth defeats #5 Emporia State 31-21

#6 West Texas A&M UPSETS #3 Indianapolis 27-26

#4 Grand Valley defeats #5 Saginaw Valley 13-9

 

That does it for the first round. No real surprises except for West Texas A&M pulling the upset against Indianapolis at Indianapolis, IN

 

Now for the second round match ups:

Second Round
#2 Bloomsburg (10-1) (24)
@ Bloomsburg, PA
#3 West Chester (11-1) (19)
#4 Winston-Salem (10-1) (28)
@ Shepherdstown, WV
#1 Shepherd (10-0) (31)
#2 UNC-Pembroke (9-1) (22)
Upset @ Pembroke, NC
#3 North Alabama (9-2) (27)
#4 Carson-Newman (10-2) (15)
@ Hickory, NC
#1 Lenoir-Rhyne (10-1) (26)

 

Second Round
#2 Minnesota State (11-0) (35)
Upset @ Mankato, MN
#3 Henderson State (12-0) (37)
#4 Minnesota Duluth (11-1) (31)
@ Maryville, MO
#1 Northwest Missouri (11-0) (40)
#2 Ohio Dominican (10-0) (28)
@ Columbus, OH
#6 West Texas A&M (10-2) (26)
#4 Grand Valley (10-2) (13)
@ Pueblo, CO
#1 CSU-Pueblo (11-0) (31)

 

#3 Bloomsburg defeats #3 West Chester 24-19

#1 Shepherd defeats #4 Winston-Salem 31-28

#3 North Alabama UPSETS #2 UNC-Pembroke 27-22

#1 Lenoir-Rhyne defeats #4 Carson-Newman 26-15

#3 Henderson State UPSETS #2 Minnesota State 37-35

#1 Northwest Missouri defeats #4 Minnesota Duluth 40-31

#3 Ohio Dominican defeats #6 West Texas A&M 28-26

#1 CSU-Pueblo defeats #4 Grand Valley 31-13

 

And that will do it for the second round. North Alabama is looking to have home field advantage in the National Championship by upsetting UNC-Pembroke at Pembroke, NC. But North Alabama is denied a quarterfinal home field when Carson-Newman falls to Lenoir-Rhyne. That matchup will take place in Hickory, NC.

And Henderson State pulls off a dramatic upset against Minnesota State at Mankato, MN.

 

Now for the Quarterfinals

Quarterfinals
#2 Bloomsburg (11-1) (24)
@ Shepherdstown, WV
#1 Shepherd (11-0) (30)
#3 North Alabama (10-2) (49)
OT Upset @ Hickory, NC
#1 Lenoir-Rhyne (11-1) (48)

 

Quarterfinals
#3 Henderson State (13-0) (36)
@ Maryville, MO
#1 Northwest Missouri (12-0) (39)
#2 Ohio Dominican (11-0) (27)
@ Pueblo, CO
#1 CSU-Pueblo (12-0) (32)

 

#1 Shepherd defeats #2 Bloomsburg 30-24

#3 North Alabama OVERTIME UPSETS #1 Lenoir-Rhyne 49-48

#1 Northwest Missouri defeats #3 Henderson State 39-36

#1 CSU-Pueblo defeats #2 Ohio Dominican 32-27

 

There is the quarterfinals. In the most thrilling game of the NCAA DII playoffs that I have ever seen North Alabama and Lenoir-Rhyne go to 3 overtimes. North Alabama advances to the Semifinals on a fake extra point and wins by a single point.

 

Now for the Semifinals:

Semifinals
#1 Shepherd (12-0) (29)
@ Shepherdstown, WV
#3 North Alabama (11-2) (26)

 

Semifinals
#1 Northwest Missouri (13-0) (38)
@ ?
#1 CSU-Pueblo (13-0) (31)

 

#1 Shepherd defeats #3 North Alabama 29-26

#1 Northwest Missouri defeats #1 CSU-Pueblo 38-31

 

Since I have no idea who would get home field advantage according to the NCAA I went ahead and left that bit of information blank. If anyone know how the NCAA would deal with #1 playing a #1 in the DII Playoffs please let me know by commenting on this post. I would love to know the answer.

 

Now for the DII National Championship

Championship
#1 Shepherd (13-0) (29)
@ Florence, AL
#1 Northwest Missouri (14-0) (38)

 

#1 Northwest Missouri defeats #1 Shepherd 38-29

 

I would like to thank everyone for reading my simulation for this year. This has been the biggest simulation that I have ever attempted.

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